The availability heuristic

Happy Sunday all,

As I hit send on this, twenty year old Carlos Alcaraz has just won the gentlemen's Wimbledon final. Vamos!!!

Earlier in the week, I watched the quarter-final between Daniil Medvedev and Christopher Eubanks, willing on Eubanks as the underdog took the lead in the match in his first-ever Wimbledon. I’d watched his last match a few days before and was invested in his journey, and I excitedly texted my dad asking if Eubanks could win. ‘He’s good, but Medvedev is very experienced’ came the reply.

After a brilliant performance from Eubanks in the first four sets, Medvedev ultimately beat Eubanks in the final set.

I’d got swept up in the underdog story, and fresh in my head were scenes from his win a couple of days prior. I’d totally underweighted in my mind the skill and experience of Medvedev and the difference in rankings between the two players. I’d just demonstrated the availability heuristic in action.

The availability heuristic

A heuristic is a mental rule of thumb. The availability heuristic operates on the principle that the more easily an example or instance can be recalled from memory, the more likely it is to be considered representative or prevalent.

A major effect of the availability heuristic is overestimating the probability or frequency of events. If vivid or memorable instances of an event are more readily accessible in our memory, it can lead to an inflated perception of its likelihood. This can impact our day-to-day decision-making because we can overweight more vivid and recent information at the expense of historical or less emotive information, making errors in judgement.

Overcoming the availability heuristic

To overcome the availability heuristic, it is essential to recognise its influence and consciously challenge it. Thinking critically and questioning the basis of our assumptions can help mitigate the biases associated with this heuristic.

This should involve seeking out diverse sources of information and considering a broader range of examples and perspectives before drawing conclusions. Actively seeking statistical data and objective evidence can help counterbalance the impact of vivid anecdotes or media portrayals. This will likely slow down the decision-making process, but it is no bad thing if biases are prevented from creeping into those decisions.

Implementation idea

Due to how we’re wired as human beings, it is very difficult to ‘de-bias’ ourselves and remove the impact of a bias on our decision-making. What we can, however, do, is to have an awareness of the different biases that creep into our decision-making and implement rules or principles to try and limit their impact.

Best, Alex Joshi.

On my bedside table:

• Article: AI and the automation of work (Benedict Evans) (link)

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