Improving solo decision-making

When making decisions, getting the independent opinions of others is very likely to improve judgement. This is the well-known wisdown-of-the-crowds effect.

But what if you're making an important decision and can't get other objective opinions? Asking yourself the same question a second time may improve accuracy.

How is that possible?

Just like a darts player who never throws a dart twice in exactly the same way, we won't always produce the same judgements when presented with the same facts on two different occasions.

If we are asked to evaluate the likelihood of an event happening and there is variability in our answers, being asked the question twice and taking the average of those answers could improve the accuracy of the forecast.

The way we think and the decisions we take are affected by factors such as mood, stress, fatigue, weather or even our level of hunger in that moment. We are simply not the same person at all times.

Identifying these factors and controlling for them is one step in improving judgements (e.g. making sure we are not overly tired or stressed), but may not be enough to completely remove the variability we exhibit.

Implementation ideas

Let's say I am deciding between two solicitors to best represent me in a legal matter.

One strategy is to simply ask yourself the question twice, leaving time in between producing your answers.

I'd analyse the information at my disposal to choose a solicor, and then repeat the exercise after a period of time. 'Sleeping on it' may temper the influence of factors which might have affected my first decision.

A second, more complex strategy, is to produce a second estimate which is as different as possible from the first, thinking about any relevant information you may not have considered in the first estimate, and any assumptions that may been incorrect.

I'd produce reasons why the second solicitor would be the better choice, looking for holes in the first judgement and information not considered properly.

With both strategies, comparing and contrasting the two different judgements should improve the accuracy of the overall judgement.

Best, Alex Joshi.